政黨政治向來為研究憲政運作、民主深化的核心議題。過往的研究,多將政黨政治視為影響憲政與民主的自變項,但憲政特性以及民主轉型的過程,也可能系統性的影響政黨體系,對於政黨體系變遷的規模、機率,存在一定的關連性。基於此,本文以政黨體系變遷為依變數,從制度特性以及民主化背景來觀察政黨體系變遷的特性。核心假設有三:首先,就制度特性而言,直選總統的國家,比起議會內閣制的國家,政黨體系變遷的機率較高、規模較大;第二,以選舉時程而言,也是制度面向的因素,在直選總統的國家中,同時選舉或蜜月選舉,因為總統衣..
Party politics is an important issue to explain the constitutional work and consolidation of a democracy, and especially for newly democracies. If the party system would be affected by different types of constitutional systems and historical legacy, the party system should also be changed. We have three hypotheses: first, we suppose those countries with a directly elected president will have a higher probability for party system change. And the smaller parties are more likely out of parliament. Second, based on the coattail effect, countrie..
日本首相握有解散眾議院的權力,眾議院解散後必然伴隨著眾議院的改選,而眾議院的多數勢力得以組閣執政,掌握國家龐大的政治資源。取得政權是政黨的最優先戰略目標,因此首相會選擇有利的時機解散眾議院。 以往的研究指出,首相解散眾議院通常有先決條與最佳時機。但是,安倍首相於 2014 年 11 月宣布解散眾議院的狀況,不同以往,甚至安倍首相自身提出的以暫緩提升消費稅為解散的理由,對選民而言亦欠缺說服力。既然如此,安倍首相為何還是宣布解散眾議院?本文..
The Japanese prime minister is empowered to dissolve the House of Representatives, which sets a stage for a general election that enables the parliamentary majority to form a new cabinet. The prime minister will choose a favorable opportunity to dissolve the House of Representatives in order to retain the regime. Previous studies have indicated that there are certain conditions and optimal timing for the prime minister to disband the House of Representatives. However, the dissolution announced by Prime Minister Abe..
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