本文旨在探討台北縣選民在 2005 年縣長與鄉鎮市長兩個不同層級選舉中的一致與分裂投票行為。本研究的重點在強調:欲瞭解選民於不同層級選舉中的投票行為,不但要關注各個層級選舉影響因素的異同,更需考量到兩項公職同時選舉時可能產生的相互影響。因此在本文中,除概述台北縣選民在這兩種選舉中的一致與分裂投票情形之外,亦嘗試以隨機效用(random utility)理論,推演兼顧上述兩個特性的雙變數「聯立式機率單元模型」 (simultaneous equations p..
This article examines the first ever simultaneous local elections of county and township magistrates in Taiwan in December, 2005. We argue that in order to fully understand the voting choices in simultaneous inter-level elections scholars need to take account not only those factors affecting each level’s election but also the interactions between different levels. There are two competing theories concerning the flow of causal influences, i.e., the bottom-up mass mobilization hypothesis and the top-down coat-tail effect ..
過去幾年來,民粹與右翼的政治勢力在許多民主國家持續成長,尤其是歐洲地區。以德國為例,「德國另類選擇黨」(AfD)以反歐盟、反移民政策為代表,並且在2017年聯邦眾議院選舉中,一口氣以12.6%的得票率拿下94席成為第三大黨,也是最大的在野黨。後續在2021年的選舉中, AfD拿下10.3%的選票,維持一定的影響力。在當前右翼、民粹的政治勢力對民主形成的挑戰中,社群媒體中的臉書成為一個重要的工具性角色。在臉書的經營策略上,右翼、民粹的政黨往往以聳動、煽動的言語攻擊既有的體制與主流政黨,激化..
In the past few years, the right-wing populist parties are rising in many democracies especially in Europe. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is known for its opposition to the EU and immigration policy of Germany. AfD has won 94 seats (12.6%) in the 2017 German Federal Election and became the third largest party as well as the largest opposition party. In the 2021 Federal Election, AfD still won 10.3% of the vote and 83 seats. In this wave of populist forces on democracy, social media plays an important role. In terms ..
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