阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
1980 年代中期以來,包括台灣在內的部分亞洲、中東歐、中南美等國家紛紛進行民主轉型,並帶動新一波的憲法變遷。不過,在民主轉型的脈絡中,憲法究竟扮演何種角色,則一直未受到充分學術探討。本文旨在深究民主轉型與憲法變遷間的互動關係。 在研究方法上,本文歸納分析民主轉型國家的憲法變遷,提出四種主要的模式:轉型初期一次制憲、轉型初期一次大幅修憲、階段式制憲、多次漸進修憲。其次則從主權因素、政權更迭、憲政傳統以及國際干預的四個面向,探討民主轉型國..
Many countries in East and Central Europe, Central and South America, and Asia, including Taiwan, undertook democratic transitions amidst the 1980s, which triggered a new wave of constitutional change. The role of constitutional change in the context of democratic transitions, however, has not been explored and discussed fully by scholars in the field. This article aims at addressing this issue and focuses on the interactions between democratic transitions and constitutional change. In order to analyze constitution..
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