阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
人類安全的概念首次出現在聯合國開發計畫署(United Nations Development Programme, UNDP)於 1994 年出版的人類發展報告之中,自此 之後,人類安全與人類發展等概念廣為各國採用與學界討論。其中位於東南亞的泰國,於 1997 年遭受亞洲金融風暴的襲擊後,在泰皇蒲美蓬 (Bhumibol Adulyadej)的倡導之下,積極推動強調「以人民為主」(people- centered)的人類安全概念。雖然泰國在許多方面表現出對..
The concept of human security first appeared in the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) 1994 Human Development Report. According to the report, the scope of human security should be broadened to include seven issues: economic security, food security, health security, environment security, personal security, community security and political security. Since then, concepts of human security and human development are widely adopted and implemented by states and commonly discussed in the academic world. Thailand ac..
討論殖民議題時,有學者指出,殖民者利用多族群的對立,採取「分而治之」的政策,以達到殖民目的;也有學者以「雙重使命」的角度,認為殖民者在殖民地不僅從事破壞,也執行建設,不該遺漏或偏頗其中一項。筆者認為,這兩種對殖民政策的分析方式,容易陷入殖民論述中常見的二分法困境,將殖民者採用「分而治之」的策略,認為是殖民者掌握殖民地的族群對立之後的理性計算,或是無法加以治理族群對立而不得不的退讓,而「雙重使命」則可能合理化殖民政策與忽略不同殖民地的特性。因此,本文質疑以「分..
Of colonial topics, a lot of scholars indicate that colonizers exploited the opposition in different races and enforced the tactics of Divide-and-Rule for the colonial purposes. Another school of scholars, based on the Dual Mandate approach, indicates that colonizers not just destroy but construct the colony as well. The article considers two approaches that led to the dilemma of colonial discourses especially on dichotomy - Divide-and-Rule, which leads to either colonizers controlling the characteristic of conflicts between ..
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