本文主要關注後冷戰時期,面對中國崛起,美中兩強與以「竹子外交」聞名的泰國如何相互應對與影響?本文主要研究問題為:一、促成美中泰三方互動結構轉變之重要政治事件為何?二、美中泰三方互動是否存在第三方影響?三、美中泰三角關係內部行為如何相互影響?透過時間序列分析,統計結果佐證911事件對美中泰三角關係產生了結構轉變之效應,而中國政經因素與泰國內政因素之衝擊有限。此外,統計結果也證實美中泰三角關係中,美中互動將促成泰國利用對美政策加以平衡回應,顯示泰國面對大國政治的敏感與謹慎。
Facing China’s rise in the post-Cold War era, how do great powers, like the United States, China, and Thailand, who is famous for its bamboo strategy, interact with each other? This paper aims to answer the question by analyzing (1) what events cause structural changes in the triangle; (2) how the third-party effect works in this triangle; (3) how the three actors influence each other. By applying time-series analyses, statistical results show that the 911 attack had led to a structural change for the triangle. The impact of China’s political-economic factors and Thai politics was not as significant as expected. On the other hand, statistical results also reveal the pattern that Thailand tended to balance the US- China interactions with its policy toward the United States, which also indicates Thailand’s sensitivity and prudence to power politics.
在解放軍發展反介入/區域拒止戰力的背景下,美國近期出現了「海空戰」作戰概念的倡議。此一作戰概念的內容堪稱完整而全面,也提出許多值得美軍採納的建議,但缺失也同樣明顯。其概念中的兩個作戰構想,深入中國大陸上空的空襲,與侵入第一島鏈之內的反潛作戰,都是執行困難且徒勞無功,更帶來沒有必要的升高風險,因而得不償失。其實,美國及其區域盟邦只要發展類似的反介入/區域拒止戰力,即可對解放軍可能的侵略與強制構成強大的抵抗力。
People’s Liberation Army is developing its anti-access/area-denial capabilities to offset U.S. military presence in the West Pacific. In response, the operational concept of the “AirSea Battle” is currently being put forward in the United States. However, useful recommendations notwithstanding, both of its two core ideas - deep strike over Chinese mainland and anti- submarine warfare within first island chain - are difficult, futile, and contenting unnecessary risks of escalation. In fact, the United States ..
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