本文根據國際貨幣的內涵與貨幣國際化的前提條件,分析中國推動人民幣國際化的主要措施與目前人民幣國際化的程度,並評估人民幣國際化的未來展望。由於國際貨幣的使用具有很強的慣性,以美元與歐元為主的國際貨幣具有先占者優勢,加上中國的資本管制與金融發展程度偏低等因素的制約,人民幣要成為全球性的國際貨幣,應該是很遙遠的事。但是基於地緣關係、經貿關係與相對的經濟實力,短期內(例如 3 至 5 年)人民幣應該可以在周邊國家扮演貿易計價貨幣的角色。如果中國能夠在這段期期間逐步實現利率自由化與匯率自由化,放鬆資本管制,並提高金融市場發展程度,人民幣可望逐漸在亞洲地區發揮國際貨幣的功能。
Based on the connotation of international currency and the preconditions of currency internationalization, this paper investigates the measures taken by the Chinese government to promote the internationalization of the RMB and assesses the current state and prospect of the RMB as an international currency. As the hierarchy of international currencies has a strong inertia, together with strict capital controls and a low level of financial development in China, it will take quite a long time before the RMB emerges as a global currency rival to the Euro and US dollar. Nevertheless, the RMB could become a major invoice currency of trade in Asia in perhaps three to five years, due to China’s dominant position in this region. In the meantime, if China would let the market decide interest and exchange rates, open up its capital and financial accounts, and develop its financial markets, the RMB could ascend as an international currency in Asia.
雖然中國政府重申不會在國際壓力下改革人民幣匯率,但其終究在 2005 年 7 月 21 日改革人民幣匯率體制與水平,本文透過貨幣權力關係理論的途徑探討為什麼中國會改變人民幣匯率政策。本文論證了美國是國際貨幣權力關係中的強國,在貨幣權力理論中延遲的權力與轉移的權力上,確認了美國的貨幣權力高於中國,讓美國得以在此一國際貨幣權力關係中向中國施壓,使得中國在人民幣匯率政策上無法說不,而必須改變人民幣實施多年的固定匯率體制。但由於中國並非美國傳統上的盟邦且在軍事、安全..
Although the Chinese government has reiterated that the reform of Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate would not be influenced by international political pressure, it adjusted the exchange rate regime and level on July 21, 2005. The main purpose of the paper is trying to analyze why the Chinese government changed the exchange rate policy through international monetary power theory. The paper proved that the U.S. is a stronger power than China in the dimension of international liquidity, owned reserves, borrowing capacity, degree of ope..
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