本研究從民眾認知外在威脅的觀點，分析其在2020年的總統選舉中，如何影響其投票行為。在2019年的年初，中國國家主席習近平提出「一國兩制，台灣方案」之後，蔡英文總統給予強力的回應，伴隨同年六月間香港升高的「反送中運動」，讓中華民國會不會因為中國大陸的威脅而消失的「亡國感」發酵，成為影響2020年選舉的重要關鍵。 本研究運用在2020年的選舉前後執行的定群追蹤調查，分析民眾是否具有「亡國感」的感受。我們發現，擔心因為被中國大陸統一而讓中華民國消失的民眾比較較高，超過五成一。我們進一..

From the perspective of possible external threat, this study analyzes how voters’ perceptions of external threat might affect their vote choice in the 2020 Presidential election in Taiwan. After Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the ‘one country, two systems’ Taiwan formula” in January of 2019, President Tsai Ing-wen gave a strong response. Along with the “Anti-Extradition Movement” in Hong Kong in June of the same year, the “sense of national subjugation (wangguo gan)” fermented by the pos..

柔性平衡理論以不同於傳統平衡論的觀點解讀國家行為與互動，其認為國家在威脅不明或與他國利益相連等情況下，將透過迂迴隱晦的方式進行平衡。該理論近年來在國際關係學界中漸受關注，研究者們不僅運用其解讀現實案例，也對理論內涵提出許多評述與論辯。本文在回顧既有論著的基礎上探討該理論之內容並檢視各類平衡策略形態，以期呈現柔性平衡理論當前的整體發展狀況，並釐清其內容中的爭議處，以推動後續研究的進一步深化。  

The theory of “soft balancing” deals with the actions and interactions among states that is different from traditional balancing theories. The former features a belief that states achieve balances among themselves in indirect and covert ways under uncertain threats and interests pegged with other states. During the past few years, the theory of soft balancing has gradually gained prominence in academic circles of international relations. Researchers not only apply the theory while interpreting actual cases, but al..