本研究目的在建立美國傳統戰略模糊與臺灣避險策略間之理論關聯性。主要假設當臺灣從美國獲得較多且明確之安全承諾時，將可能更依賴美國安全保護傘，進而降低自身制定外交政策之自主與靈活性。過去數十年，華盛頓持續且長期的安全承諾，即有可能限制臺灣的避險策略選擇。本研究的實證證據，主要探討川普與拜登政府任內，華府戰略模糊逐漸轉變為戰略清晰下，臺北在美中兩強之間的外交政策。此外，藉由將避險的理論「模型化」，並區別避險與樞紐的關係，是本文另一個研究貢獻。

The study aims to establish a theoretical connection between strategic ambiguity and hedging policy. The assumption is that as Taiwan receives more security assurance and clarity from the United States, it may rely more on the U.S. security umbrella, reducing its autonomy and flexibility in crafting its foreign policy. Over time, consistent and prolonged security commitments from the United States could limit Taiwan’s hedging options, as it increasingly aligns with the U.S. position. The empirical evidence in this article explores how..

現有國際關係研究對於霸權主導國際制度已有一定之發現，不過對崛起強權參與建構國際制度的行為傾向，則附屬於霸權的相關討論，而未獲得一定之重視。霸權論一般認為，崛起強權在未發生霸權戰爭前，只能被迫遵循霸權主導 下的國際制度，唯有在崛起強權取得霸權地位之後，方能展示是創建國際制度的領導能力。霸權論由相對物質權力層面探索的崛起強權描述，僅能凸顯霸權戰爭的爆發，未必能勾勒出崛起強權的全面行為，亦未能解釋霸權繼承者的條件。 發生霸權更迭之前，並非沒有發生崛起強權參與建構國際制度的案例，例如德意..

The exploration of the rising power has been subordinated to the arguments of hegemony and revisionist states. The Hegemonic Stability Theory and Power Transfer Theory have argued that the rising power has to follow international instructions set according to the hegemonic interests before the break out of hegemony war through which the rising power revolts the status quo hegemon. This approach might describe the reasons of hegemonic war; however, it might not be able to explain the overall behavior patterns of rising power in the construct..