民眾政治態度的研究中，政治信任感一直是學者關注的重要主題。本研究以 2004 年總統選舉期間，民眾政治信任感的變化為重點，分析發生在本次總統選舉的「三一九槍擊案」，是否會對於民眾政治信任感產生影響。民眾對選舉過程的程序公正性評估，是否會影響民眾的政治信任感，也是本研究分析的重點。

本研究運用政治大學選舉研究中心在 2004 年選舉前後所進行的定群追蹤研究資料以及在選後執行的訪問資料進行分析，結果發現:民眾在選舉前後，其政治信任感並未產生顯著的變化，進一步分析不同背景民眾政治信任感的差異，本研究發現本省閩南、台灣人認同者、傾向獨立以及支持泛綠的群眾，在選舉前後其政治信任感皆顯著高於大陸各省、中國人認同者、傾向統一以及支持泛藍的群眾。我們進一步發現民眾對於政府舉辦的選舉、公民投票過程以及對於正副元首槍擊事件處理的滿意度上，對於民眾政治信任感具有顯著影響。換言之，認為對選舉過程以及槍擊案處理過程不滿意的民眾，其政治信任感是顯著偏低的。

由於民主政治講求的是程序的公平與正當性，程序的公平與正當對於政黨競爭有良性影響，更讓民眾對民主體制更具信心。因此，講求程序的合理與正當，不但攸關任何統治合法性，更對政府的治理，具有關鍵性的影響。

Political trust is an important topic in the field of political attitude research. The focus of this paper is on the changes and continuity in the level of political trust during the 2004 presidential election in Taiwan. We examine the impacts that the controversial March 19 shooting attempt had on political trust. We also explore whether or not evaluations of the procedural fairness of the presidential campaign affect political trust.

This study employs panel data collected before and after the 2004 presidential election by the Election Study Center(ESC). We demonstrate that levels of political trust did not change significantly during that time period. However, we also find that Minnanren and people who identify as “Taiwanese,” pro-independence, and support pan-green political parties have higher levels of political trust than Mainlanders and people who identify as “Chinese,” pro-unification, and support pan-blue parties. Furthermore, we find that satisfactions with the procedures of the election and the referendum and the handling of the March 19 shooting attempt all have a significant impact on political trust—those who are not satisfied have lower levels of political trust.