阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
2015 年 11 月,緬甸舉行國會大選,由翁山蘇姬領導的全國民主聯盟(全民聯)獲得壓倒性勝利。2016 年 3 月,由全民聯所提名的翁山蘇姬親信 碇喬(Htin Kyaw),順利在國會總統選舉中獲勝,並於 3 月 30 日正式宣誓就任緬甸新總統。其後,碇喬總統向國會提出的 21 個部會首長名單,也獲得國會通過。本文將先從碇喬內閣完整名單探討新政府人事布局的若干特點,並對照新政府近日相關的種種政治作為與安排,分析其欲展現的政治目標,以及對緬甸與中美大國關係所..
In November 2015, the National League for Democracy(NLD), led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory in the general elections. In March 2016, the NLD nominee U Htin Kyaw, a confidant and proxy of Suu Kyi, successfully won the presidential election in the Union parliament, and was inaugurated as president on March 30. On May 25, President Htin Kyaw announced the final list of 21 ministers to assume control of 22 ministries. This paper discusses the characteristics of personnel composition of Htin Kyaw’s cabinet..
傳統的研究智慧中,總統制和兩黨制的配套被認為是一個民主國家較容易運作的組合。主要的理由是兩黨制較不可能出現意識形態的極化,以及因為兩個政黨需要贏得中間位置的選票,其可以促成政黨之間較溫和及向心的競爭,因而有助於總統制的運作。然而,近年來,一些兩黨總統制國家發生嚴重的憲政危機,甚至促成民主衰退。為何這些兩黨總統制國家會走上民主衰退的道路,是本文所要探索的研究問題。首先,本文透過對於拉丁美洲兩黨總統制國家的個案分析發現,憲政結構的因素如總統和國會的權力抗衡會影響..
Past research argues that presidentialism and two-party systems are workable combinations that can facilitate democratic stability. The causal mechanisms are that ideological polarization is less possible to appear in a two-party system, that two parties needing to win votes from the center encourages moderation, and that the absence of the extremist parties and the centripetal nature of party competition favor democratic stability. However, in recent years, some presidential countries with a two-party system in Latin America..
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