2014 年 2 月爆發的烏克蘭危機是歐洲當前最嚴肅的區域安全挑戰,這不僅是因為烏克蘭危機使得歐洲再度出現區域衝突情勢,同時也因列強介入而使得地緣競爭強度漸趨激烈。學界多探討烏克蘭危機及其背後的歐洲地緣競爭意涵,然較少從烏克蘭內部安全策略選擇的角度分析,本文嘗試補充此等觀點,從內部因素出發,分析烏克蘭內部政治如何影響區域危機的發生。
本文認為:第一,烏克蘭受制於強權競爭,使烏克蘭與其他中間地帶國家,都必須在左右強權互動格局下進行回應與策略選擇,不過烏克蘭內在特殊性有別於其他國家,這個特殊性是政策變異程度高、策略選擇極端化,而解釋這個極端現象有賴內部因素分析方式,才能一窺全貌。第二,本文內部因素理解方式乃是透過決策者、社會結構與憲政制度著手,解釋烏克蘭安全政策變動之因,本文發現決策者因素與安全政策變動關連並不明顯,分裂型社會因素才是重要關鍵,憲政制度則是回應分裂型社會結構下,政治權力游移的展現。第三,烏克蘭策略選擇呈現出規律的擺盪模式,此種擺盪未隨時間遞移而漸趨緩和,相對的,擺盪還因為歐俄強權介入而使衝突情勢漸次升高,這顯示強權環伺下中間地帶國家的無奈。最後,本文指出烏克蘭失去克里米亞、盧甘斯克、頓內茲克等地後,烏克蘭社會結構將受到重新調整,擺盪模式或可能受到衝擊,安全策略也可能因而有調整。
Ukraine is situated strategically between EU and Russia. The outbreak of the Euromaidan Revolution(February 2014)designates the advent of severe geopolitical competition in the European continent. Though it is crucial to understand this competition through the lens of great power rivalry, small and medium countries that exert certain leverages between great powers also warrant our attention. We argue that the domestic approach is suitable to explain the transformation of Ukraine’s security choices. We first develop an analytical framework that delineates the importance of domestic perspective in analyzing the Ukraine crisis, then examine the formation of Ukraine’s security policies and scrutinize her domestic approach consisted of political elites, divided society, and constitutional development factors. We also employ an explanatory pendulum model to analyze the shifts of Ukraine’s security choices; some theoretical implications are drawn from the discussions.
歐洲聯盟 2004 年 5 月以及 2007 年 1 月的東擴之舉係 1950 年代以來歐洲統合過程中重要的發展過程。這不僅是使得中東歐地區國家加入歐盟,更重要的意義在於將不同地區文化與結構透過改革的轉軌過程中融入了歐盟的價值。因此,在歐盟未來的主要擴大議程中也包含了土耳其、克羅埃西亞以及西巴爾半島地區國家。對於歐盟而言,加強並保障有關區域和平、穩定、 繁榮、民主、人權以及歐洲法治的理念價值是相當重要的。 對土耳其而言,與歐盟的關係已歷..
The Eastern Enlargement of the European Union in the year of 2004 and 2007 is one of the most significant developments in the process of European Integration since the 1950s. And with Turkey and the Western Balkan States, enlargement will continue to be one of the major issues on the political agendas. More recently, the EU has inspired tremendous reforms in Turkey, Croatia and the Western Balkans. It is vitally important for the EU to ensure a carefully managed enlargement process that extends peace, stability, prosperity, d..
在國族形塑過程中,各種原生條件,如共同歷史記憶、語言、文化、宗教信仰等,扮演著重要角色。烏克蘭在擺脫俄羅斯影響,重塑其國家主體性的歷史進程中,耗費漫長的時間在教會自主-脫離莫斯科的管理,成為真正的民族教會。但就東正教會的角度來看,一個民族國家教會的獨立不僅只是個別國家的問題,還牽涉到普世東正教會的教法傳統,這也涉及到東正教關於教會與國家關係的認知。此外,烏克蘭正教會的獨立又牽涉到兩個無法迴避的議題:烏克蘭信眾對於教會歸屬的認同以及莫斯科教會的立場和影響力。本文以烏克蘭正教會獨立為核心,討..
During the process of building a nation, various original conditions, such as common historical memory, language, culture, religious beliefs, etc., play an important role. In the history of integration of Ukrainian statehood, the most important events are the independence of the Ukrainian Church, where it separated from Moscow’s rule and the creation of a national Church. However, from the position of the Ecumenical Orthodox Church, this topic not only touches state policy, but also the Church tradition, which has a connection with th..
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