阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
政黨政治向來為研究憲政運作、民主深化的核心議題。過往的研究,多將政黨政治視為影響憲政與民主的自變項,但憲政特性以及民主轉型的過程,也可能系統性的影響政黨體系,對於政黨體系變遷的規模、機率,存在一定的關連性。基於此,本文以政黨體系變遷為依變數,從制度特性以及民主化背景來觀察政黨體系變遷的特性。核心假設有三:首先,就制度特性而言,直選總統的國家,比起議會內閣制的國家,政黨體系變遷的機率較高、規模較大;第二,以選舉時程而言,也是制度面向的因素,在直選總統的國家中,同時選舉或蜜月選舉,因為總統衣..
Party politics is an important issue to explain the constitutional work and consolidation of a democracy, and especially for newly democracies. If the party system would be affected by different types of constitutional systems and historical legacy, the party system should also be changed. We have three hypotheses: first, we suppose those countries with a directly elected president will have a higher probability for party system change. And the smaller parties are more likely out of parliament. Second, based on the coattail effect, countrie..
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