經濟學界基於 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制危機的歷史教訓，與新近發展的內生整合理論，多認為即使無法擺脫馬斯垂克條約整合門檻的法規束縛，歐洲貨幣同盟至少應儘快邀請有意加入歐元區的歐盟東歐成員國，在此一過渡階段進行密切的經濟貨幣政策協調合作，以免再度發生匯率與金融危機。本文首先對經濟學界就歐洲貨幣同盟擴張議題，所發表的重要文獻進行評述。其次根據既有論點，以東歐經濟規模最大的捷克、匈牙利、波蘭作為研究對象，結合簡單的總體經濟模型與賽局分析概念，探討三國已為歐盟成員，且未來必以加入貨幣同盟為目標下，歐盟官方如改採內生整合理念，立即與之進行經濟貨幣政策協調合作，並協力穩定雙方的經濟金融發展，是否能夠互蒙利益，進而減低該國重蹈 1990 年代歐洲匯率機制採固定匯率與資本流動自由化，卻因欠缺國際經濟政策協調合作，以致引發匯率與金融危機的覆轍。模擬結果顯示，囿於目前進度，於 2010 年方有可能加入貨幣同盟的捷克，應有資格立即與歐洲中央銀行進行經濟政策協作，並有效降低過渡時期發生匯率與金融危機的風險。
Some economists believe that even if the Maastricht convergence criteria is indispensable, the European Monetary Union should at least invite Central and Eastern European countries to participate in economic policy coordination as soon as possible, on the basis of the theory of endogeneity and the experience of the ERM crisis in the 1990s. The purposes of this research are 1)to provide an economic literature review about the issue of EMU enlargement and 2)to determine whether a bilateral coalition of an accession country and the European Central Bank would eliminate the risk of an ERM II crisis occurring during the transitional period. The simulation results indicate that, at this moment, the Czech Republic is qualified under specific simulated shocks. By means of cooperation with the European Central Bank, its interest rate differential with respect to the euro area can be maintained at a lower level and therefore decreases the risk of suffering from substantial capital flows during the transition to the EMU.
近年來，隨著歐盟和北約組織的東擴與俄國的再度興起，位處西方民主國家與俄國之間「地緣斷層線」上的中東歐國家對俄國「抗衡或扈從」 的議題又再度浮上檯面。相關文獻指出，中、小國家與大國之間的利益相似程度，是決定其對該大國選擇「抗衡或扈從」關係的關鍵前提條件，據此，本文探討在這個「地緣斷層線」上16個曾具有相似背景的前「東方集團」的中東歐國家與俄國之間在外交政策利益相似程度上的變化。以近年來在各國所發生的事件為基礎，本文發現，經濟危機和民主退化的問題， 在近年來開始威脅著這些中東歐國家的傳統政黨..
Due to the eastern expansion of EU and NATO and the resurgence of Russia under Putin’s leadership, how the Central and Eastern European fault line states chose between balancing and bandwagoning toward Russia has become a salient issue in contemporary international relations studies. This article investigates changes in the degree of policy similarity between 16 former “Eastern Bloc” Central and Eastern European States and Russia. The rationale for this study is that previous studies demonstrated that this issue is the key..
2016 年夏，歐盟面臨近 20 年來恐怖主義威脅的最高峰。2015 年初開始，伊斯蘭恐怖分子陸續對法、比、德等國境內大城發動恐怖攻擊，使歐洲國家陷入極度恐慌。本文從歐洲恐怖主義的歷史背景出發，討論歐洲恐怖主義意識形態基礎的轉變，並描述伊斯蘭國對歐洲的威脅。此外，歐洲外交安全政策、內部移民問題與社會問題、聖戰意識形態、網路科技等因素，皆對歐洲近期恐怖主義的發展，產生重大影響。此一波歐洲恐怖攻擊方式，主要 以孤狼式攻擊為主，而歐洲聯盟也以內部與外部行動，企圖回..
In the summer of 2016, Europe was facing its biggest terrorist threat of the last two decades. Form the beginning of 2015, Islamic terrorists have launched a series of attacks on major cities in France, Belgium and Germany. The EU has been in a state of panic after the attacks. First, this article discusses the transformation of terrorist ideology in Europe from a historical background and describes the threat of the Islamic State. In addition, the European foreign and security policy, immigration and social problems, jihadis..
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