選舉制度影響政黨體系,是廣為人知的因果推論。依此邏輯,若以政黨體系為因,以選舉制度的變化為果,即產生內生性的選制變遷理論。然而,某些研究者仍認為選制變革起於和政黨體系無關的外生因素。本文主張,選制變遷是否受到政黨體系的影響,取決於選制的種類。第一,有利大黨的多數決選制如果始終未出現一黨過半,則國會屬於多黨制,有可能因為小黨組成多數聯盟而改採比例性選制。尤其當現狀為並立式單一選區兩票制時,可能因為小黨的議席多來自政黨名單,而比代表區域主義的多數決選制更容易導致..
It is well known that electoral system shapes party system. By this logic, an endogenous explanation for changes in electoral systems should treat party system as the cause and changes as the consequence, in sharp contrast with theories attributing changes to exogenous factors that are irrelevant to party system. This paper argues that whether changes in electoral system are caused by party system depend on the type of the electoral system. First, if a majority party never emerges from a majoritarian electoral system, minor p..
尼加拉瓜前軍事將領Daniel Ortega,以38%得票率於2006年總統選舉獲勝當選。選後,許多分析家將Ortega勝選歸結為2000年選舉法及右派候選人分裂,而本文旨在利用尼國最高選舉委員會公布的選舉結果,重新檢視促成Ortega當選的這兩項原因之影響力。在交叉分析尼國選舉結果後,筆者發現勢均力敵的右派政黨候選人競爭形勢,使Ortega得以首輪當選。
Nicaragua's former military leader, Daniel Ortega, has won the 2006 presidential election with 38 percent of the vote in the first round. Some Analysts have argued after the election that there were two main factors - the 2000 election law and the division among the two rightwing candidates - that led to Daniel Ortega's victory. In this paper, the author aims to reexamine the influences of those two factors by using the election result released by the Nicaragua Supreme Electoral Council (CSE). In conclusion, the author fin..
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