2015 年 11 月,緬甸完成了歷史性的國會大選,由翁山蘇姬(Aung San Suu Kyi)帶領的全國民主聯盟一如外界預期獲得勝選。2016 年 3 月,緬甸新國會即將產生新的總統,進一步成為挑戰軍系勢力、推動戒律式民主 (disciplined democracy)再改造的關鍵領導人。緬甸民主發展正面臨脆弱轉型之際,儘管全民盟的勝選有利於延續緬甸之春(Burma Spring)的改革能量,但鑲嵌在制度設計中的各種「透明的不正義」(transparent injustice),卻也預留了軍系保守勢力逆襲的可能性。有鑒於此,本文將先探討促成緬甸之春的內生動力,對照國際社會對於緬甸近期政治發展的評估,進而論證本次國會大選對於緬甸新局的意義。
Myanmar has successfully held its general election on November 8th 2015. As predicted, the National League for Democracy(NLD)led by Daw Aung San Suu Ki won the election, becoming the majority in the parliament. A new president, according to the Constitution, will be elected by the NLD- led parliament by March 2016, who may push forward political transformation of disciplined democracy while challenging the Tatmadaw. The winning of NLD will, for sure, invigorate Burma Spring; however, transparent injustice embedded in the Constitutional setting still consolidates a role and capacity of Tatmadaw in domestic politics. This paper intends to discuss the driving forces of Burma Spring in line with international assessments on Myanmar political development since 2010. It then concludes with the discussion of promises and discontents of Myanmar’s general election in 2015.
自從 1962 年便落入軍事威權統治的緬甸,在 2010 年 11 月 7 日舉行自 1990 年以來首次的聯邦與地方議會大選,並在 2011 年 3 月 30 日隨著新總統登盛的宣誓就職,而從軍政府正式轉型至文人政府。此後登盛政府進行了一系列改革措施,頗令人耳目一新。本文主旨在解讀緬甸自 1948 年獨立以來的政治發展,並將 2011 年以降的政治改革放在威權政體尋求政治正當性的歷史脈絡中來觀察,而認為當軍政府的國內正當性鞏固工程在本世紀初面臨因經濟困境所..
The Burmese military has been successful in maintaining its authoritarian rule in the past decades. In 2011, however, the junta shifted its power to the civilian government despite the absence of inside or outside political pressure . Since then, the new government has introduced many reforms that allow greater political liberty in Burma. This paper locates the junta’s power shift as part of a wider process of the military consolidating political legitimacy. It argues that as the junta’s power consolidation reache..
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