阿拉伯之春是於 2010 年年底,由突尼西亞開始發生一連串位於包括中東與北非地區的國內政治動盪事件。多數人認為,這與當地的威權政治,以及經濟發展遲緩有高度相關,因此,本文首先探討中東北非地區內戰可能的發生原因,包括經常被提及的政治與經濟因素,另外再輔以中東北非地區特殊的區域環境解釋,包括了此區特有的豐富天然資源,以及造成此次阿拉伯革命的連鎖反應。作者發現,經濟發展非常顯著地影響著內部衝突發生的機率,包括良好的發展以及開放的貿易政策,而民主與衝突則顯示「倒 U 型」 的分布,過渡政體是最容易發生內部衝突的政體,而從威權到過渡政體間的衝突機率是升高的,而從過渡政體往民主的衝突機率則減少。自然資源的產出與衝突有顯著的正相關,但是並非意味著此區生產最多的原油是引戰的原罪。最後,本文證實在此區衝突的傳染力是存在的,但僅限於「鄰國」,若超越了國界,這樣的感染力也隨之消失。由於本研究為從 1946~2012 年,研究對象包括 24 國的時間序列與橫斷面資料(time-series, cross-sectional, TSCS),以及依變數為二元類別變數(binary outcome variable),因此採用廣義估計方程式(General Estimating Equation, GEE)作為本文的主要研究 方法。
Since the Arab Spring occurred in the end of 2010, Middle East and North Africa(MENA)regions have drawn attentions from international society because of turbulent domestic events. Some nations in this area have leaders who stay in office for a very long time(e.g. Libya and Egypt), and some nations suffer from slow economic development(e.g. Algeria). Therefore, this study tries to review the previous studies on the civil war, focusing on political and economic determinants, to examine if political institution and economic development affect the onset of internal conflict in the region. The results show an inverted U-shape relationship between democracy and the onset of conflicts. Autocracy is proven to be the most chaotic regime. However, the likelihood of conflict is decreasing as economy develops. In addition, the author investigates two regional factors – natural resources and conflict contagion in this study – and finds significant relationships. In this study, data are time-series and cross-sectional(TSCS), including MENA countries from 1946 to 2011, while The General Estimating Equation(GEE)are applied as the econometric model.
王金平黨籍訴訟案同時凸顯出國家管制(司法審查)/政黨自主的界限問題、政黨自主/個人自由的界限問題,以及黨內民主原則的適用範圍問題等。本文參考有限度審查說、司法審查基準理論、外國政黨法、國內外相關司法判決,對前述問題得出下列結論: 第一,為能具體釐清政黨自主及司法審查之界限,筆者建立三階段之審查基準。依序審視:政黨在程序方面之規定及運作,是否違反國家法律規定及民主原則,致使黨員權利受到不合法之侵害,或受到少數人之打壓?政黨在實體方面之規定..
The lawsuit of Wang Jin-pyng’s party membership has exposed problems concerning the boundary between state regulation ( judicial review)and party autonomy, between party autonomy and individual freedom, as well as the scope of application of the principle of inner-party democracy. Based on the “theory of limited review”, the standards of review, party laws of foreign countries, as well as related domestic and foreign judicial decisions, this study came to the following conclusions regarding the abovementione..
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